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Ahead of the Curve: A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business and Market Cycles (Hardcover)
by Joseph H. Ellis
| Category:
Economic trends analysis, Business forecasting, Management |
| Market price: ¥ 308.00
MSL price:
¥ 288.00
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Pre-order item, lead time 3-7 weeks upon payment [ COD term does not apply to pre-order items ] |
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 Good for Gifts |
| MSL Pointer Review:
Excellent analysis of sequence of events and its impacts in economic cycle, helping investors focus on the bullseye during each phase of this cycle. |
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Author: Joseph H. Ellis
Publisher: Harvard Business School Press
Pub. in: October, 2005
ISBN: 1591396913
Pages: 256
Measurements: 9.4 x 6 x 1.2 inches
Origin of product: USA
Order code: BA00853
Other information: ISBN-13: 978-1591396918
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- MSL Picks -
This is one of the most informative business books as Ellis shares with his reader what he learned when he set out "to investigate how I might develop an improved method for forecasting consumer spending and, with it, the rest of the economy. Furthermore, I wanted to document the basis for my forecasts with such clarity that my clients would understand not only the forecast but also the rationale supporting it." At this point, it is worth noting that, for eighteen consecutive years, Ellis was ranked as Wall Street's #1 retail industry analyst by Institutional Investor magazine.
As Ellis explains, his book has two broad purposes: "To help us understand and then overcome major flaws in the way most economic information is reported and digested by the business, investment, and economist communities" and "To put the this new framework to work in forecasting." The material is carefully organized and presented in four Parts:
1. "Seeing" the Economy: Creating Order from Chaos
2. Consumer Spending: The Cornerstone of the Economy and the Stock Market
3. Forecasting Consumer Spending: Understanding the Key Indicator Relationships
4. From Theory to Practice: Applying the Charting Discipline to Your Own Forecasting
Joseph Ellis posits that Real Consumer Spending (PCE) is the "cornerstone of the U.S. economy", the "front end of the business cycle", and the key to understanding the economy as a whole. And he shows us why and how Real Consumer Spending leads Industrial Production, leads Capital Spending, and can predict bear markets. "Bear markets begin when growth in real consumer spending (PCE) peaks and begins to slow." Besides drawing our attention to the causal relationships of various economic indicators, Ellis points to what he believes are the "two great flaws in conventional economic analysis" that have clouded the picture and impeded understanding for too long: The emphasis on Recession, which lags the economy and the stock market and only materializes after the damage has been done. And the habit of tracking data on monthly and quarterly bases, creating a lot of "noise" and zig-zaggy charts, as opposed to tracking year-over-year percentage changes.
How to forecast consumer spending? Ellis demonstrates that real hourly wages are the key determinant of growth in consumer spending. And he shows us how the employment rate, consumer borrowing, the federal funds rate (discount rate), the federal deficit, and total domestic non-financial debt fit in the picture. Even if Joseph Ellis' forecasting methods do not prove infallible in the future, "Ahead of the Curve" provides valuable insight into the relationships between economic series based on empirical evidence. Its greatest contribution is to show us which economic indicators matter and how not to be misled by them. Ellis' thinking and his writing are impressively clear, organized, thought-provoking, and easy to follow.
- From quoting Robert Morris
Target readers:
Business people and investors.
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Joseph H. Ellis was a partner of Goldman Sachs and was ranked for eighteen consecutive years by Institutional Investor magazine as Wall Street's #1 retail-industry analyst.
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From the publisher
Today's managers and investors are bombarded with so many conflicting economic reports and data that it seems impossible to know which way the market will turn until it's too late. Now, a thirty-five year Wall Street veteran enables managers and investors to stop relying on conventional economic forecasts (which are usually wrong), and confidently analyse how the market will impact their industry, business, or stocks. The author unveils his proven forecasting model - based on just a few key economic indicators - for identifying major directional changes in the economy and adjusting business and investing strategies accordingly. A simpler and more pragmatic approach to forecasting: user-friendly approach draws from empirical observation and first-hand practice rather than abstract economic theories Great timing: will appeal to the many business people and investors who got burned in the dotcom bust because they didn't see the downturn coming Proven model developed by a bonafide Wall Street sage: Ellis is widely respected as a sage when it comes to analysing economic trends based on over three decades as a successful Wall Street analyst Novel, counterintuitive, accessible: goes against the grain of common wisdom about what really drives the economy and makes practical tools available to a wide audience of practitioners for the first time Appendix B in the book specifically relates the methodology in the main section of the book to possible application in the UK, Canada, Germany, France, and Japan.
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| View all 6 comments |
Turkeri (MSL quote), USA
<2007-06-18 00:00>
Joseph Ellis, gives a clear method on how to forecast business cycles...This book is not all about unproven theories, or fancy calculus, or econometrics, on the contrary, Joseph Ellis shows us a simple yet elegant logic on deducting casual relationships among the driving forces of the economy, which can make one filter out all the unnecessary noise and see clearly what really makes the economy thus the stock market perform... This book is a must read. |
A reader (MSL quote), USA
<2007-06-18 00:00>
As an investor and business owner for many years this is the first time I read a book that employs the kiss principle and the 20/80 rule to analyzing the economy. Economists waste so much time analyzing hundreds of statistics when really you only need to examine a handful of old true reliables. This book has the old true reliables and they are beautifully explained.
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Richardson (MSL quote), USA
<2007-06-18 00:00>
This book by Joseph Ellis is an interesting read about various business and market cycles. For traders and investors, the most important information concerns the impact of "real personal consumption expenditures" (PCE) (inflation adjusted) on the economy and the markets. Most economists and most stock market analysts believe there are very few, if any, leading indicators that 'predict' where the economy and the stock market will head. That may be true, but, one would be amiss not to pay attention to the increase/decrease of PCE and it's apparent impact on the economy and the markets. It certainly appears that historically, the PCE has been a good leading indicator of where the markets will be heading.
Even more importantly, any business owner or corporate executive who doesn't consider what is happening to the PCE is setting himself and his company up for a nasty fall. Ellis also talks about numerous other indicators (interest rates, unemployment, inflation and the like) and shows how they are all 'trailing' indicators of what the economy has done, not a leading indicator of what it will likely do based on personal spending.
This book should be read by any business person who is concerned for how the economy is doing and the impact it might have on his business. Investors should read it to understand how PCE can give excellent preliminary alerts to changes in the economy and the markets. It should be required reading for business students in college. |
Donny (MSL quote), USA
<2007-06-18 00:00>
The author offers strategies that have practical meaning and adaptation. When an investor, or business owner, wants to ensure that his or her decision is accurate, a real world understanding of indicators is necessary. Knowing how to properly forecast and predict business cycles can differentiate a profitable business or investor from a chapter 11 situation. |
View all 6 comments |
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