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Ahead of the Curve: A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business and Market Cycles (精装)
by Joseph H. Ellis
| Category:
Economic trends analysis, Business forecasting, Management |
| Market price: ¥ 308.00
MSL price:
¥ 288.00
[ Shop incentives ]
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| Stock:
Pre-order item, lead time 3-7 weeks upon payment [ COD term does not apply to pre-order items ] |
MSL rating:
 Good for Gifts |
| MSL Pointer Review:
Excellent analysis of sequence of events and its impacts in economic cycle, helping investors focus on the bullseye during each phase of this cycle. |
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AllReviews |
1 Total 1 pages 6 items |
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Turkeri (MSL quote), USA
<2007-06-18 00:00>
Joseph Ellis, gives a clear method on how to forecast business cycles...This book is not all about unproven theories, or fancy calculus, or econometrics, on the contrary, Joseph Ellis shows us a simple yet elegant logic on deducting casual relationships among the driving forces of the economy, which can make one filter out all the unnecessary noise and see clearly what really makes the economy thus the stock market perform... This book is a must read. |
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A reader (MSL quote), USA
<2007-06-18 00:00>
As an investor and business owner for many years this is the first time I read a book that employs the kiss principle and the 20/80 rule to analyzing the economy. Economists waste so much time analyzing hundreds of statistics when really you only need to examine a handful of old true reliables. This book has the old true reliables and they are beautifully explained.
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Richardson (MSL quote), USA
<2007-06-18 00:00>
This book by Joseph Ellis is an interesting read about various business and market cycles. For traders and investors, the most important information concerns the impact of "real personal consumption expenditures" (PCE) (inflation adjusted) on the economy and the markets. Most economists and most stock market analysts believe there are very few, if any, leading indicators that 'predict' where the economy and the stock market will head. That may be true, but, one would be amiss not to pay attention to the increase/decrease of PCE and it's apparent impact on the economy and the markets. It certainly appears that historically, the PCE has been a good leading indicator of where the markets will be heading.
Even more importantly, any business owner or corporate executive who doesn't consider what is happening to the PCE is setting himself and his company up for a nasty fall. Ellis also talks about numerous other indicators (interest rates, unemployment, inflation and the like) and shows how they are all 'trailing' indicators of what the economy has done, not a leading indicator of what it will likely do based on personal spending.
This book should be read by any business person who is concerned for how the economy is doing and the impact it might have on his business. Investors should read it to understand how PCE can give excellent preliminary alerts to changes in the economy and the markets. It should be required reading for business students in college. |
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Donny (MSL quote), USA
<2007-06-18 00:00>
The author offers strategies that have practical meaning and adaptation. When an investor, or business owner, wants to ensure that his or her decision is accurate, a real world understanding of indicators is necessary. Knowing how to properly forecast and predict business cycles can differentiate a profitable business or investor from a chapter 11 situation. |
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Kupeli (MSL quote), USA
<2007-06-18 00:00>
In my opinion, economy is a bus of passengers riding by caving its way using the experience coming from the past. In this extend, this is an excellent book giving inside about cause and effect relations in the economy we experienced in the past. Yet it is not for beginers, in my opinion, but rather for every one who has some knowledge in economy and finance. A very enjoyable read. |
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Mckelvey (MSL quote), USA
<2007-06-18 00:00>
The author's approach toward economic data is very refreshing, in that he works quite hard at finding data that is predictive of stock market declines. Just the chapter on the "recession obsession", and why its bad for you makes the whole book worthwhile. It really put a lot of economic numbers in perspective, and made me realize it was actually possible to use economic numbers to your advantage.
I would also add that his writing style is very easy to follow. While it definitely helps if you have some background in economics, it is really not necessary. |
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1 Total 1 pages 6 items |
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